The first two days of the Planet under Pressure conference could easily be perceived as depressing days. Insights in the current state of the planet, and the continuation of the pressures the economy puts on the ecosystems, is not particularly funny stuff. However, the vast amount of knowledge that is present at the conference, in the form of some 3000 participants, is not only impressive, but hopeful as well. Clearly, we know an aweful lot. And clearly also, most scientists seem to wrestle with the amazing gap between our current understanding of the earth as a system, and the lack of urgency and willingness to act. Of course, rational as most scientists are, the words are chosen carefully, but are nevertheless not to be misunderstood: the ‘fabric of life’ as professor Sandra Diaz puts it, is being torn, thus undermining the natural resource base and ecosystem services without which our economy cannot flourish.
Arctic sea ice
What was unthinkable a couple of years ago, is now generally accepted – though not welcomed, of course: the idea that the (politically set) limit of maximum 2 degrees warming this century is probably not achievable anymore. Some 4 or 5 degrees warming or more is to be expected, we had better be prepared for that, if possible. Meanwhile, we may be pushing some tipping points already, told prof. Tim Lenton, University of Exeter in a parallel session. His current, not yet published, analysis of the Arctic sea ice behaviour indicates that the system may be shifting to an alternative stable state. The amplitude of the natural variability and the response time needed to return to the old situation, are early warning signals of a system tipping to a new state, and exactly that seems to be happening in the Arctic, Lenton says. See Fred Pearce’s article in the New Scientist, here.
Anthropocene
Arctic sea ice is just one example, there are many other signs that indeed we entered the age of the Anthropocene, an era in which the influence of human activities can be observed in many processes driving planet Earth. The term Anthropocene, originally coined by the Dutch Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen, is one of the buzz words of the conference. Partly, the almost certainty that we are pushing the planet to a new unknown but certainly hot state, means a shift in the scientific agenda, which seems to be happening already. So far, clarifying the mechanisms that lead to global change (warming, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion and so on) was key, with natural sciences in a dominant role. The agenda now seems to be shifting to integrated approaches, where social sciences and natural science work hand in hand to analyze man-ecosystem interactions, and help to bring forward governane approaches that work, both in an ecological as well as in a socio-economic sense.
